Is the sky starting to fall?
The stock market has taken a tumble.
Selling fear has always been newsworthy, but it’s been especially bad this year.
Are you convinced that a recession is coming as the media have portrayed for the last two years?
How about the results of the current election? If your candidate doesn’t win, will our economy fall apart?
How about the Corona Virus? Are you wearing a mask yet?
We recently had Lauren Saidel-Baker from ITR Economics, an economic intelligence and forecasting agency, come present to our entire Acumen community on the state and future of the economy in the world, US, our region, and locally.
Did you know that the US is 24% of the world’s economic GDP? Me neither. China is a big number two (sorry, couldn’t help myself). As goes our economy, so goes a large chunk of the world.
For the US, Lauren stated that we’re heading into a dip for the first two quarters this year. Last week the stock market followed her forecast and lost 1500 points in two days. Here we go. The good news is that the second half of the year, the US will rebound and continue pushing up.
Now – the sky falling part. Due to a math problem, when you add up our nation’s operating budget, debt, and social security burden, in 2030, ITR has forecasted the Great Depression Prediction. The big one. So have fun in the roaring 20s and prepare for 2030.
Frankly, I’ve always thought something has to happen. ITR has finally told a story that is built with historical analysis and deep understanding of the changing demographics of our country and the world into the future. It’s plausible. Is it the only outcome? No, but it’s plausible.
If you planned for a great decision prediction in 2030, what would you do right now to be ready?
Lauren joked that we’d want to downsize our house so our kids didn’t move back in. Nervous laughter at the truth and silliness of the joke also brought reflection.
How old will you be?
How old will your kids be?
What does your company look like right now?
What could your company look like in the future?
What would the impact of the Great Depression Prediction be on your business and personal life?
Are you a saver? Investor? Seller? Buyer? Ride it out? Exit beforehand? Downsize? Scale-up?
The conversations after the presentation were interesting. There are many visionaries in our community. This realistic scenario gave our community a real challenge to solve for in their life. Some owners, CEOs, and leaders are changing timelines, strategies, and conversations based upon what they heard. The story can change, but why wait?
For some, the sky is falling. What will I do? For others, the opportunity to acquire, invest, and grow in a hard market was an exciting challenge.
Is the sky going to fall?
I don’t know. You don’t know. Nobody knows. But it’s good to think about it.
How do you resource and plan when you see opportunity and challenge on the horizon?
For more information on the data in this blog please visit ITR’s website here.
March 5, 2020